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macroeconomics

covid pandemic decentralized finance exchanges / cap mkts fixed income macroeconomics philosophy

·Mar. 16, 2020

Slowing GDP growth by 1.5% is like another 10 million people getting infected with coronovirus, and other analysis on financial fragility

I hope that you and yours are OK, socially distanced and stocked on essentials. Whether you feel it yet or not in daily life, the world is bracing for coronovirus impact. In this week's analysis, I look at the difficult trade-offs between health and economy, and try to quantify the impact of the likely slow-down. We look at some grim but useful concepts, like (1) the value of a statistical life, (2) what happened to the Soviet economy and life expectancy after perestroika, and (3) how our financial machines (NYSE, Robinhood, Maker DAO) are cracking at the edges. If you can do one thing -- be kind and gracious with each other as some things inevitably break.

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covid pandemic exchanges / cap mkts fixed income macroeconomics narrative zeitgeist venture capital

·Mar. 2, 2020

How Coronovirus impacts Fintech, Financial Markets, and the global Economy

I look at how the news about the spread of the coronovirus are cracking the global economic machine. Some may argue that the number of people effected is still low -- but that misses the entire point. The shock of a global pandemic has revealed weakness in the financial machine, sending the stock markets falling 10% year-to-date. Gross domestic product growth is expected to slow by billions of dollars, governments and central banks are unable to implement policy to compensate with rates at historic lows and borrowing at historic highs, public market valuations will tumble arithmetically, and private Fintech companies will lose a path to exit. At least that's what the conspiracy theorists want you to think!

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covid pandemic Investing macroeconomics neobank roboadvisor

·Apr. 27, 2020

Betterment launches bank accounts into a world that has changed completely

This week, we look at Betterment launching a bank account and payments feature. They are not the first, but they could be the best! Still, it feels like the world has moved on. Barriers to entry around digital finance have collapsed, and shifted industry goal posts. Hundreds of companies are integrating API-based solutions that connect to banking and investment entities. Amazon, Google, and Apple are there already. And let's not forget the incredible pressure from the COVID recession: 20MM+ unemployed, $100 billion decrease in global remittances, 1 in 8 banks being unprofitable. Is it time for incremental improvement, or a sea change?

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Crypto exchanges / cap mkts macroeconomics philosophy venture capital

·May. 24, 2021

Bitcoin price falling doesn’t mean what Paul Krugman claims

This week, we cover these ideas:

That absurd Paul Krugman article about Bitcoin. Also Jim Cramer has things to say about financial regulation.
If all the prices are down, which they are, does that mean that everything is bad and wrong?
How timing is a personal financial planning problem, not a market value problem

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central bank / CBDC China covid pandemic macroeconomics regulation & compliance small business stablecoins

·Apr. 20, 2020

War over Money reaches new heights, as Libra opts into regulation, China launches national blockchain, and Financial Stability Board raises alarm

This week, we look at cash -- blockchain cash. The war for money is just starting to ramp up, as Facebook Libra explains its new regulated plan, the Chinese national Blockchain Service network goes live, Ethereum stablecoins reach historic market caps in the billions, and the Financial Stability Board recommends to go heavy on global stablecoin arrangements. In 2008, Bitcoin threw a rock through the window of the financial skyscraper, and today we are starting to see the cracks. As the US government runs out of $350 billion in small business bail-out money and gets ready to print more, where do you stand?

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central bank / CBDC civilization and politics enterprise blockchain macroeconomics narrative zeitgeist philosophy regulation & compliance Social / Community stablecoins things that are not true

·Nov. 24, 2021

World Economic Forum CBDC analysis in the era of Populism, Institutionalism, and Hofstede’s Cultural DNA

We anchor our writing around the World Economic Forum 223 page report on CBDCs and stablecoins. The analysis highlights the key conclusions across several white papers in the report. We then add a layer of meta analysis around the language in the report, and question what it is trying to accomplish, and whether that will work with the Web3 revolution. This leads us to think about the tension between populism, as represented by crypto, and institutionalism, as represented by banking structures. We discuss theories of cultural and national DNA, and the rise of populism, as difficult problems to solve for any global alignment.

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DAOs decentralized finance macroeconomics stablecoins

·Apr. 23, 2021

Building the foundational money DAO (Decentralized Autonomous Organization) in DeFi, with Rune Christensen of Maker Foundation

In this conversation, we talk with Rune Christensen of Maker Foundation about how he became one of the most influential builders in the DeFi ecosystem. Additionally, we explore the creation, experiences, and evolution of Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs), the nuances of stablecoins, the interaction between Maker and DeFi with traditional finance and traditional economies, and Maker’s approach to leveraging layer 2 solutions to aiding scalability and transaction throughput.

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macroeconomics super app

·Jun. 15, 2020

Amazon/Goldman partnership, TikTok banking license, and Ethereum fintech through the lens of Aggregation Theory & Super Apps

If you are in finance and only looking at banks, you are missing out on the real change agents. Here's some cross-industry action that we will unpack this week.

Amazon selected Goldman Sachs to be the lender of choice for small business loans. TikTok maker ByteDance is working with a Singaporean business family to get a financial license. And small business bank Starling is integrating Slack, energy switching service Bionic, and health insurance provider Equipsme into their marketplace. And we might as well talk about the Plaid Exchange launch, and end on the computational economy of Ethereum.

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Crypto decentralized finance macroeconomics

·Jun. 20, 2021

What the market misses about Bitcoin and Ethereum in 2021

This week, we cover these ideas:

Crypto prices show increasing correlation in market swings, which hides the large substantive differences between projects
The core narrative of Bitcoin, and its fundamental indicators
The core narrative of Ethereum and Web3, and its fundamental indicators
A sanity check on potential market caps relative to gold, equities, and other assets

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asset management covid pandemic fixed income macroeconomics small business

·Mar. 23, 2020

Why $2 trillion is barely enough for the coming unemployment spike, expected 20%+ GDP slow-down, and small business crunch

Another heavy week. It is hard to find the right, or even the interesting, thing to say. I look at why the $2 trillion in US bailouts may not even be enough to stave off the economic damage. In particular, I am alarmed by the large and fast rise of unemployment claims (higher than 2008 peak), estimates that GDP may fall by 20-30%, and the broad impact on small business. Small businesses have 27 days of cash on hand, and power half of our economies through both employment and output. So how do we meet this challenge? What strength should we draw on in the moment of doubt to become the artists of tomorrow?

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