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asset managementcovid pandemicfixed incomemacroeconomicssmall business
·Mar. 23, 2020

Why $2 trillion is barely enough for the coming unemployment spike, expected 20%+ GDP slow-down, and small business crunch

Another heavy week. It is hard to find the right, or even the interesting, thing to say. I look at why the $2 trillion in US bailouts may not even be enough to stave off the economic damage. In particular, I am alarmed by the large and fast rise of unemployment claims (higher than 2008 peak), estimates that GDP may fall by 20-30%, and the broad impact on small business. Small businesses have 27 days of cash on hand, and power half of our economies through both employment and output. So how do we meet this challenge? What strength should we draw on in the moment of doubt to become the artists of tomorrow?

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central bank / CBDCChinaCryptomacroeconomicspaytech
·Nov. 9, 2020

Will the Blockchain Economy run on Bitcoin, Ethereum, or Central Bank Digital Currency?

This week, we look at:

  • The Bitcoin money supply being worth as much as the M1 of several countries

  • The Visa/Plaid deal DOJ anti-trust filing and the PayPal integration of Bitcoin

  • Understanding Central Bank Digital Currencies in the context of card networks, payment processors, and digital economies

  • Chinese CBDC and how it could relate to stopping the $34B Ant Financial IPO

    How a CBDC ecosystem is like an operating system, rather than a payment rail

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central bank / CBDCcivilization and politicsenterprise blockchainmacroeconomicsnarrative zeitgeistphilosophyregulation & complianceSocial / Communitystablecoinsthings that are not true
·Nov. 24, 2021

World Economic Forum CBDC analysis in the era of Populism, Institutionalism, and Hofstede’s Cultural DNA

We anchor our writing around the World Economic Forum 223 page report on CBDCs and stablecoins. The analysis highlights the key conclusions across several white papers in the report. We then add a layer of meta analysis around the language in the report, and question what it is trying to accomplish, and whether that will work with the Web3 revolution. This leads us to think about the tension between populism, as represented by crypto, and institutionalism, as represented by banking structures. We discuss theories of cultural and national DNA, and the rise of populism, as difficult problems to solve for any global alignment.

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