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artificial intelligenceFractals & reflexivityphilosophy
·Sep. 11, 2020

The nature of Consciousness, artificial intelligence, and how we see Finance Sep 11, 2020 1

The question of consciousness goes to the root of why we build, what we create, and how we decide what is valuable and what is not. And if we can control our self-conception and the modeling we do of the world, the texture of life becomes better. A recurrent theme in our writing is that systems don’t care about their agents per se. There are many game theoretical equilibria where agents suffer, but systems perpetuate. So figuring out how an agent within a system reflects on happiness is paramount.

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central bank / CBDCdigital transformationgenerational changemega banksnarrative zeitgeistphilosophyvisual art
·Jan. 25, 2021

What 1840s “Free Banking” and the 1910s Cubist movement suggests about DeFi and economic machine evolution

This week, we look at:

  • The nature of innovation hubs, and how close groups of actors within a particular environment can be massively, fundamentally productive. Take for example the 30 million years of the Cambrian explosion.

  • The difficulty of experimenting with banking and money frameworks, the limits of traditional econometrics, and an overview of “free banking” in the 1840s.

  • How evolutionary theory can help us think about selection of economic models, and the hyper-competition and hyper-mutation that we see in crypto. DeFi protocols, like BadgerDAO and ArcX among hundreds of others, are experiments in designing different monetary policies and banking regime experiments in real time.

We have never before had such acceleration in the design space of the economic machine, subject to evolutionary pressures, built by a closely-wound nexus of developers. It is a fortune for the curious.

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decentralized financeEmbedded Financepaytechphilosophy
·Jun. 29, 2020

Wirecard’s collapse hurts Fintech & Crypto start-ups, like Lehman and Enron burned the economy

This week, we consider the impact of financial infrastructure collapse and who really gets hurt through the lens of Wirecard, Enron, and Lehman Brothers. Yes, there are investors in the entity that will lose value. But there are also clients and counterparties of Wirecard, like Curve, Revolut, and Crypto.com. In the case of Lehman, there was a $40 trillion derivatives notional amount that took twenty years to wind down. We also consider the most recent $500,000 hacking in DeFi of an automated market maker to see if there are common threads to be drawn between the two worlds.

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cybersecuritymicroeconomicsphilosophy
·Aug. 5, 2019

Losing our Sacred Data – how to make sense of Capital One, Equifax, and Facebook

Capital One recently suffered a data breach resulting from poor security practices that exposed 100 million credit card applications and accounts. They expect the breach to cost the company $150 million. Two years back, Equifax lost 140 million identities, again from poor security practices. At the time, I said that according to GDPR this should cost them $150 million. They have since settled for about $600 million -- though some of that seems to be in-kind services coverage like free credit monitoring (lol!). Separately, Facebook has settled for a $5 billion fine associated with the Cambridge Analytica privacy "breach".

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civilization and politicsdigital transformationentrepreneurshipphilosophy
·Jun. 8, 2020

What can Fintech learn from Elon Musk and SpaceX getting astronauts to space for 90% cheaper than NASA?

This week I discuss SpaceX, and its Dragon rocket carrying American astronauts to the International Space Station for the first time in 9 years. The 20 year old company is a testament to the incredible iron will and absolute insanity of the most visionary capitalist alive -- Elon Musk. We walk through various attributes of the company and recent launch to derive lessons for the financial industry and the entrepreneurs rebuilding it.

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Chinacivilization and politicsCryptoICO / IEOphilosophy
·Oct. 14, 2019

The political limits of commerce — Telegram’s $1.7B US offering and NBA’s $1.5B China deal

I look at the boundaries that Telegram and EOS have crashed into in the US with recent SEC actions and lawsuits, and the melting of Facebook Libra. There have been a number of interesting regulatory moves recently, and the positive headlines of 2017 have become the negative headlines of 2019. How does SEC jurisdiction reach foreign institutional investors? We also touch on the $1.5 billion NBA distribution deal now on the fence in China, and how US companies are under the speech jurisdiction of a foreign nation. How does China reach American protected speech? Through pressure, boycott, and economics.

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music industryNFTs and digital objectspaytechphilosophySocial / Community
·Mar. 8, 2021

Why Square bought Jay Z’s music service Tidal for $300MM, and how the NFT-driven transformation of music royalties and ownership can explain this future

This week, we look at:

  • Square acquiring Tidal and its 1-2 million of subscribers for $297 million, and the logic for what a payment processors has in common with the creative industry

  • How celebrities and creators like Mark Cuban, Gary Vaynerchuk, Grimes, 3LAU and others are generating millions in NFT sales

  • The impact on the economic model of the music industry, including a look at royalty structures, revenue pools, and financial vehicles when tokenized

  • The philosophical divide growing between a feudal platformed commons (e.g., YouTube) and a collectivist anarchist capitalism

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decentralized financeFractals & reflexivitygenerational changemicroeconomicsphilosophy
·Feb. 17, 2020

Worldline’s $8B acquisition of Ingenico’s $3B revenue would barely pay for Robinhood or Revolut’s valuations

I look at how spending $8 billion can either buy you $3 billion of revenue from Ingenico, or the private valuation of Robinhood and/or Revolut. Would you rather have a massive cash-flow machine, or a venture bet on a Millennial investing meme? To articulate this question in more detail, we walk through the impact behavioral finance has had on economic rational actor theories, and why quantitative financial modeling often similarly fails to capture the underlying tectonic plates of industry. It may not be wrong to bet on Millennials. We talk about what identity economics (ala identity politics) means for market value and how to think about generational change.

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DAOsentrepreneurshipmonetization / commercialphilosophyventure capital
·May. 10, 2021

Lessons from Elon Musk, Warren Buffett, Galaxy Digital, and the emerging DAOs for building a Fintech empire

This week, we cover these ideas:

  • The difference between building a Fintech company, and building an empire to transform the world

  • How Warren Buffett is the best in the world at getting leverage through third party capital to grow

  • How Elon Musk is the best in the world at re-investing capital into his own judgment and view of the future

  • The $1.2B BitGo acquisition by Galaxy Digital, and the growing footprint of Alameda Research

  • DAOs as a way for all of us to participate

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decentralized financephilosophyventure capital
·Sep. 7, 2020

How signalling explains SoftBank’s $4 billion call option trade, SushiSwap’s vampire attack, and why we make Art

This week, we look at:

  • PayPal and Square being larger than Bank of America and Goldman Sachs

  • The SoftBank $4 billion in tech oligopoly call options, and why people feel uneasy

  • Uniswap vs. SushiSwap, and Bitcoin vs. Litecoin, and why these forks felt wrong

  • How understanding signalling can help make better decisions

Read Full Story
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