Random

philosophy

decentralized finance Fractals & reflexivity generational change microeconomics philosophy

·Feb. 17, 2020

Worldline’s $8B acquisition of Ingenico’s $3B revenue would barely pay for Robinhood or Revolut’s valuations

I look at how spending $8 billion can either buy you $3 billion of revenue from Ingenico, or the private valuation of Robinhood and/or Revolut. Would you rather have a massive cash-flow machine, or a venture bet on a Millennial investing meme? To articulate this question in more detail, we walk through the impact behavioral finance has had on economic rational actor theories, and why quantitative financial modeling often similarly fails to capture the underlying tectonic plates of industry. It may not be wrong to bet on Millennials. We talk about what identity economics (ala identity politics) means for market value and how to think about generational change.

Read Full Story

artificial intelligence asset management civilization and politics Fractals & reflexivity philosophy

·Jun. 17, 2021

A meditation on capitalism, the grey goo, and the Borganisms

You work. You get money. You take money and invest it. If you are lucky, it becomes larger. Otherwise, it becomes smaller. If you have a lot of money, you can either start a company or not. If you start a company, you invest in your own ability to influence outcomes and in your own transformation function. There are other, personal utility functions also being satisfied in executing the transformation function. Alternately, you focus on the work of getting capital into other companies. For this allocation and selection work, you are rewarded. To this, you can add the capital of others, until you are doing selection on their behalf.

Read Full Story

decentralized finance NFTs and digital objects philosophy supply chain / trade visual art

·Feb. 8, 2021

Non-fungible tokens and crypto art (like Hashmasks) will create multi-billion markets for digital objects with financial features

This week, we look at:

Hashmasks, CryptoPunks, and other large NFT / crypto art projects generating tens of millions of USD trading volume
Perceptions of financial value, as well as whether it matters to have an “original” digital art piece relative to its digital copy
The intersection of collectibles with decentralized finance, and its collateralization, tranching, lending, and trading, as well as a view on 2021

Read Full Story

central bank / CBDC China decentralized finance digital lending identity and privacy philosophy

·Jun. 7, 2021

Purpose of Identity, its connection to finance, and implementations in the Euro digital wallet and DeFi protocols

This week, we cover these ideas:

The nature of digital identity, and the difference between a representation at some moment of time vs. a record of your being
The launch of the DeFi Passport by Arcx and how it can be useful for underwriting
The European Digital Wallet, and the implication of such a development for CBDCs and government services
China’s CBDC, Sweden’s BankID, and other existential crises

If you want to go deeper on this topic, we strongly recommend our conversation with Michael Cena of the Ceramic Network here. Whereas Michael started working on the identity problem by trying to add labels to people, where he ended up is creating a protocol that tracks historic software activity and interactions between actors. In thinking about the Ship of Theseus, this is the solution that says — your identity is your journey through the river of time itself, and not any particular stop you make along the way.

Read Full Story

civilization and politics covid pandemic Crypto generational change macroeconomics philosophy

·Jan. 4, 2021

What do Bitcoin, Ethereum, GDP, unemployment, and Covid have in common in 2021?

This week, we look at:

The spectacular price increase in crypto assets, hitting new records for Bitcoin, as well as the comparable statistical situation around Covid cases
An explanation of the $1.5 trilion income effect in 2020, and how it has led to both capital acumulation and inequity (thanks NY Times!)
A discussion of all-time-highs and all-time-lows, why we need them, and their connections to the macro-economy, computer code, music, and the universe itself

One wonderful takeaway from Watts, which of course is not his, but beautifully plagiarized into the English language, is the duality of experience. The need for polar opposites, in a clock-like cycle. To have black, you must have white. To have the top of the wave, you need the bottom of the wave. To have a melody, you need equally the presence of the notes, and their absence in silence. To breathe in, you need to breath out. It is meaningless to have a data point without the context in which it exists.

Read Full Story

civilization and politics decentralized finance mega banks paytech philosophy regulation & compliance

·Aug. 30, 2021

OnlyFans bank-forced adult content ban, its failure, and the Metaphysics of Finance

We talk about OnlyFans, and how its bank vendors pressured it to try to ban adult content, and how and why that failed. We also discuss the crypto tax provisions in the Senate version of the $1 trillion infrastructure bill, and their impracticality. These themes are tied together with a metaphysical hypothesis about the role of financial services, anchored in a discussion of the Platonic model of the mind. How are rationality, emotion, and social context involved to define the shape of our industry?

Read Full Story

cybersecurity microeconomics philosophy

·Aug. 5, 2019

Losing our Sacred Data – how to make sense of Capital One, Equifax, and Facebook

Capital One recently suffered a data breach resulting from poor security practices that exposed 100 million credit card applications and accounts. They expect the breach to cost the company $150 million. Two years back, Equifax lost 140 million identities, again from poor security practices. At the time, I said that according to GDPR this should cost them $150 million. They have since settled for about $600 million -- though some of that seems to be in-kind services coverage like free credit monitoring (lol!). Separately, Facebook has settled for a $5 billion fine associated with the Cambridge Analytica privacy "breach".

Read Full Story

civilization and politics generational change macroeconomics microeconomics narrative zeitgeist philosophy Social / Community

·Nov. 19, 2019

Ok, Boomer — a meme for the broken political economy

Chlöe Swarbrick, a 25-year old climate MP was presenting her climate change case to the New Zealand parliament, and was heckled by an older audience member. Without missing a beat, she acknowledged and dismissed the challenger with a pithy “Ok, Boomer.”

The recording has since gone viral, inspiring everything from merchandise to Vogue articles. While the incident isn’t the source of the phrase “Ok, Boomer”, today it is the most well known manifestation. So what does the phrase mean? If you are inclined to more colorful language, see Urban Dictionary. But the meaning is obvious on its face — Gen Z is dismissing utterly and without consideration the judgment and protestations of society's elders on multi generational issues like economics, climate change, and social norms.

Read Full Story

covid pandemic decentralized finance exchanges / cap mkts fixed income macroeconomics philosophy

·Mar. 16, 2020

Slowing GDP growth by 1.5% is like another 10 million people getting infected with coronovirus, and other analysis on financial fragility

I hope that you and yours are OK, socially distanced and stocked on essentials. Whether you feel it yet or not in daily life, the world is bracing for coronovirus impact. In this week's analysis, I look at the difficult trade-offs between health and economy, and try to quantify the impact of the likely slow-down. We look at some grim but useful concepts, like (1) the value of a statistical life, (2) what happened to the Soviet economy and life expectancy after perestroika, and (3) how our financial machines (NYSE, Robinhood, Maker DAO) are cracking at the edges. If you can do one thing -- be kind and gracious with each other as some things inevitably break.

Read Full Story

No More Content

Go Back To Homepage