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central bank / CBDCexchanges / cap mktsICO / IEOIPO / SPACstablecoins
·Dec. 2, 2019

Shifting from Institutions to Retail Clients — NYSE direct listings and Central Bank digital currencies

I look at the similarities between the NYSE building out direct listing products to augment or replace IPOs, and Central Banks considering launching consumer-facing digital currencies. In each case, the value chain of the respective financial sector is compressing, as the underlying manufacturers of financial product move closer to the consumer. I also highlight how a few blockchain-native alternatives to trading and rebalancing software are developing, and the reasons to get excited about things like Set, Uniswap, and Aragon.

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big techdecentralized financeenterprise blockchain
·Sep. 1, 2020

J.P.Morgan’s Quorum becomes part of ConsenSys, putting Ethereum at heart of commercial and financial infrastructure

The main driver of today's entry is the news -- which has largely percolated -- that ConsenSys acquired Quorum from J.P. Morgan, as well as received an investment from the bank in the company. There is a lot of jargon in the blockchain industry, and I want to try to pull this news apart to explain why it is interesting both to incumbent financial services players, as well as meaningful to the developing decentralized finance industry.

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decentralized financedigital transformationneobank
·Sep. 18, 2020

Finance blood in the water ($900B wasted on digital transformation) is why neobank Chime is $15B, and why Uniswap could be next

This week, we look at:

  • PwC estimating that $900 billion has been wasted on digital transformation projects for enterprise, meaning finance is vulnerable

  • Chime is worth $15 billion in the latest round of valuation, same as $200B+ depository bank Fifth Third, which is quite the achievement

  • Decentralized exchange Uniswap distributing 60% of its token to the community, flipping the ownership and value accrual model

As a thought experiment -- today, if you want to save for a house, you may create a financial plan in Betterment and wait for the portfolio to accrue. Tomorrow, you may bring cashflows to a housing protocol which intermediates property markets, and build your portfolio directly into your desired goal of buying a house. Your stated selection and articulation of that goal, by choosing the housing protocol, generates value on its own through rewards, participation, governance, and various interest rate products.

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Cryptodecentralized financeexchanges / cap mktsFractals & reflexivityIPO / SPAC
·Feb. 25, 2021

Why Coinbase’s $100B+ valuation makes sense, and how to compare it to $60B Ethereum DeFi, and to crypto-king Binance

his week, we look at:

  • There are two very large revenue pools in the crypto asset class — (1) mining, and (2) trading. There are some large revenue pools in crypto-as-a-software, too, but those tend to be less sensational.

  • This analysis will establish a 2021 baseline for the most regulated of crypto exchanges, Coinbase, including a detailed financial model building a $100B+ valuation case

  • We then consider the valuations and multiples of capital markets protocols in Decentralized Finance of Ethereum, now making up over $60B in token value

  • Lastly, we look at Binance’s $1B in profits, its $35B BNB token, and the activities on Binance Smart Chain

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Cryptodecentralized financefunding roundopen sourcep2p & crowdfunding
·Jun. 4, 2021

Developing regenerative finance using memes for the public good, with Kevin Owocki of Gitcoin

In this conversation, we talk with Kevin Owocki, who serves as the CEO & Chief Roboticist at Gitcoin, about the evolution of the programmable blockchain space, how open software gets made, where value comes from and all sorts of other really cool futuristic things.

Additionally, we explore the nuances of being an early developer in shifting markets, idea mazes, the founding of and philosophy behind Gitcoin, the deep work being done towards the Open Internet, the building of community-driven grant mechanisms, early work on quadratic-funding, and the idea behind memes powering DeFi.

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central bank / CBDCCryptodecentralized financedigital securities / STOICO / IEOstablecoins
·Dec. 23, 2019

Top 5 Decentralized Finance predictions for 2020 and beyond

In the long take this week, I revisit decentralized finance, providing both an overview and 2019 update. The meat of the writing is the following long-range predictions for the space in the next decade -- (1) the role of Fintech champions like Revolut and Robinhood as it relates to DeFi, (2) increasing systemic correlation and self-reference in the space, which requires emerging metrics for risk and transparency, and (3) the potential for national services like Social Security and student lending to run on DeFi infrastucture, (4) the promise of pulling real assets into DeFi smart contracts and earning staking rewards, and (5) continued importance of trying to bridge into Bitcoin. Here's to an outlandish 2020!

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decentralized financephilosophyventure capital
·Sep. 7, 2020

How signalling explains SoftBank’s $4 billion call option trade, SushiSwap’s vampire attack, and why we make Art

This week, we look at:

  • PayPal and Square being larger than Bank of America and Goldman Sachs

  • The SoftBank $4 billion in tech oligopoly call options, and why people feel uneasy

  • Uniswap vs. SushiSwap, and Bitcoin vs. Litecoin, and why these forks felt wrong

  • How understanding signalling can help make better decisions

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acquisitionCryptodecentralized financeICO / IEO
·Nov. 30, 2020

Mergers and Acquisitions in open-source Decentralized Finance, and its $5 billion market capitalization

This week, we look at:

  • M&A in decentralized finance, focusing on the Yearn protocol and its targets Pickle, Cream, Akropolis

  • The motivations behind such M&A, and where economic value collects

  • The importance of community and security, creating increasing returns to scale

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decentralized finance
·Mar. 26, 2021

Uniswap’s V3 upgrade, the future of Automated Market Makers, and the financial compression algorithm

The most popular AMM, Uniswap, is annualizing to $1 billion in fees. That’s a chunky amount of value for its users.

The team has just released the third version of its protocol, and it is an innovation in the structure of the AMM logic. Instead of providing liquidity across the entire price curve, users are now able to specify pricing ranges for which they are participating in the curve. This protects market makers from the extreme price fluctuations which they may prefer not to fund. Because most trading also happens in narrower price bands, it is possible that capital is much more actively used in those bands, and generates higher fee returns comparatively.

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CryptoInvestingIPO / SPACpaytechstablecoinsventure capital
·Jul. 11, 2021

The fundamentals of Circle’s $4.5B SPAC, Robinhood’s IPO, and the $30B of fintech venture capital

Last quarter, fintech funding rose to $30 billion, the highest on record. $14 billion of SPAC capital is waiting to take these companies public. Robinhood and Circle are about to float on the public markets, via SPAC and IPO. In this analysis, we explore the fundamentals of both companies, as well as the unifying thesis that explains their growth.

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